Analysis: Going gets tough for all parties

Hyderabad: At the end of Chiranjeevi’s second round of yatra and the Yuvagarjana of Chandrababu Naidu, the political scene remains confused as ever before. Even as Chiranjeevi plans his Rayalaseema yatra and Congress boss Y S Rajasekhara Reddy thinks of countermoves, the situation is in a flux, say most political observers. There are theories, but nobody is sure whether the Congress’ main opposition will be Chandrababu Naidu or Chiranjeevi.

“This suits us well. The anti-incumbency votes will get divided between the Prajarajyam and the Telugu Desam. And we will get the spin off from the development schemes of the government. This will be enough to see us through,” says a Congress MP.

But not all ruling party leaders are so optimistic. In fact, alarm bells have started ringing in the Congress after Chiranjeevi’s Telangana yatra. “The yatra was impressive. We have to carefully deliberate on how to counter him,” a senior Congress leader elaborated. But politics—like cricket—being a game of glorious uncertainties, even Chiranjeevi partymen are not sure of what the record crowds in the yatra mean. “Yes, it is very heartening that crowds increased in each successive public meeting of Chiranjeevi. It was more in Warangal than it was at Karimnagar where it all began. And in Khammam where it all ended there were far more than at Warangal. We did not mobilise the crowds but it has to be seem how many will vote for us,” said a Prajarajyam official.

Buoyed by the response, Chiranjeevi is now planning to campaign in Rayalaseema including YSR’s native Kadapa district to take the battle right into the heartland of the enemy. This surely indicates the mega star’s increased confidence but reports from the area suggest that Kadapa seems to be totally sold out to YSR. “It is doubtful what Chiranjeevi can achieve here. Kadapa is a pocketburough of YSR and Anantapur district is a bastion of the TDP. Kurnool remains low key,” said an analyst.

YSR to counter the ‘freshness’ card of Chiranjeevi is now drafting son Jaganmohan in a big way into the campaign. Though it is already public knowledge that YSR’s son would contest the Lok Sabha polls what is surprising is that Jagan is being drafted for campaigning in coastal parts of the state too. “With youth votes expected to come to fore, YSR hopes that pressing Jagan into services will yield good results,” an analyst said. Money power will be in full play in the Congress’ election campaign, to give that extra edge to the campaign as will be a wholesale change in party candidates to give an impression of newness. “Oftentimes, the electorate does not want to vote for existing candidates and vote for a change. We can offer a change by changing our candidates,” a Congress leader said.

TDP bosses are also walking with a new swagger post Yuvagarjana. “The party is back in the reckoning, that’s clear. It has certainly mobilised the Kammas in their heartland. But is the other backward caste (OBC) vote still with them is the issue,” said an analyst. N T Rama Rao first rode to power on the votes of OBC and for a long time, the party had a grip over them. In line with its new confidence the party is now planning the next round of the Mee Kosam yatra for Chandrababu Naidu. This will consolidate the strength of the TDP.