The BJP came up with the slogan “Congress-mukt Bharat” in 2014, and Narendra Modi repeated it several times. Rahul Gandhi was projected as “Pappu” by BJP groups, and he was heavily trolled online.
For years, there has been a perception that the Congress is almost dead and can never revive under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership.
The BJP’s celebration over its hold in West Bengal may be understandable, but what is happening in South India tells a different story.
The Congress is already ruling with an absolute majority in Telangana and Karnataka. In Kerala, the newly elected UDF government has a strong Congress presence.
In Tamil Nadu, the new government formed by TVK also has the Congress as the second major partner in the coalition after TVK.
This means that out of five South Indian states, the Congress has a presence in the governments of four states.
In Tamil Nadu itself, the BJP won only one seat, while the Congress secured five seats. In a state with a large Hindu population, why is the BJP still unable to contain the Congress?
The answer lies in Tamil Nadu’s Dravidian ideology and the Tamil population’s strong attachment to language and culture.
Many people in the state have not been drawn towards the Hindi- and Hindutva-driven politics of the BJP.
Adding to this, Hindus in Tamil Nadu have generally not faced large-scale religious disturbances, and temples were not desecrated under atheist Dravidian rulers.
Religious peace and freedom have largely prevailed in the state. As a result, religion-based politics has had limited electoral success in Tamil Nadu.
The BJP may be successful in North India, but in the South, it continues to face serious limitations.
Coming to the Congress, people in the South may not be voting simply by looking at Rahul Gandhi’s face. They are voting more based on regional leadership, local issues and state-level political equations.
Interestingly, no powerful regional party with real traction in the South has a natural ideological alignment with the BJP.
Though the TDP and Jana Sena are in alliance with the BJP in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP’s strength and presence in the government are not clearly visible to the people. So, this alliance may not automatically help the BJP grow in the state.
Moreover, the BJP does not have a powerful leadership face in the South, except in Karnataka. B. S. Yediyurappa built his image over decades and became a strong local leader with a national party background, much like late Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy did for the Congress.
So, Karnataka remains the BJP’s only strong ground in South India for now. Any anti-incumbency against the Congress in Karnataka may work in favour of the BJP during elections.
But in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the BJP still does not have a strong face. In Telangana, controversies involving Bandi Sanjay’s son Bhagirath in the POCSO case may also affect the party’s growth prospects.
Unlike in West Bengal, there is no major religious disturbance in Telangana that can create a strong opening for the BJP. With these socio-political realities and regional limitations, the BJP is struggling to gain a firm grip on the South.
This has left space for regional parties to form governments either independently or with the support of the Congress. So, those who say the Congress is dying may have to look again — at least in South India, it appears to be reviving.
Written By Usha Chowdhary
