Poll strategist Pradeep Gupta has revealed how his agency identified the rise of actor-turned-politician Vijay nearly a year before the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, as support for his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, steadily increased.
Gupta said their groundwork began much before the formal campaign started. According to him, voter support for TVK rose from 25% to 35% over the course of one year.
“This was the trajectory,” Gupta said, explaining how TVK gradually emerged as a serious challenger to the DMK-led alliance.
While several other agencies predicted a comfortable victory for the ruling alliance, Axis My India gave TVK a competitive range of 98 to 120 seats.
The party eventually won 108 seats, almost exactly matching the midpoint of the agency’s estimate.
Gupta said even small changes in vote share can significantly impact seat numbers.
“Even a 2% variation in vote share can dramatically alter seat outcomes,” he said.
Changing Political Landscape In Tamil Nadu
Gupta attributed Vijay’s rapid political rise to a mix of star power, public fatigue with established parties, and the decline of the AIADMK after the death of its former leader.
According to him, demographic changes have created demand for new political alternatives, especially among younger voters.
He also pointed out that Vijay’s long-standing screen presence and anti-establishment image in films helped strengthen his credibility among the public.
Vijay eventually formed the government with support from several parties, including CPI, CPI(M), VCK and IUML, after navigating a tense standoff with Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar.
